Hello Capitalists,

Markets wobble as Tesla takes a beating and the trade deadline on July 9th takes center stage on Wall Street

• DOW: 44345.83 - (⬇️0.17)🔴

• S&P: 6231.32 - (⬆️0.02) ✅

• NASDAQ: 20418.18 - (⬆️0.03) ✅

• CBOE VIX Volatility Index: 16.76 (⬇️1.03) ⚠️⬇️

Here’s everything you need to be following today:

Goldman Sachs and BoA just ramped up their expectations for the S&P for 2025

Goldman Sachs raised its S&P 500 year-end forecast to 6,600 and its 12-month target to 6,900, citing anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, robust large-cap performance, and reduced tariff concerns, as Wall Street optimism grows for continued market gains in 2025.

• Goldman Sachs increased its S&P 500 forecasts from 6100 to 6600 and Bank of America raised theirs from 5600 to 6300, both driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in September, October, and December, and strong mega-cap stock performance.

• The firm noted lower-than-expected tariff impacts and a resilient 2026 earnings outlook, with large-cap companies benefiting from inventory buffers and neutral investor positioning, supporting broader market upside.

• Despite a historically narrow market rally, Goldman Sachs anticipates a 3% gain over three months and an 11% rise over 12 months.

Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill will have a huge impact on middle class taxpayers

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, passed by Congress last week, extends President Donald Trump’s 2017 tax cuts and introduces new deductions aimed at easing financial burdens for middle-class Americans. Republicans tout it as a cornerstone of economic relief ahead of the 2026 midterms.

• Extension of 2017 Tax Cuts: The One Big Beautiful Bill Act makes permanent the lower tax brackets and increased standard deduction from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, preventing an automatic tax hike for middle-class taxpayers, with additional standard deduction increases of $750 for individuals, $1,500 for married couples, and $1,125 for heads of household starting in 2025.

• New Deductions for Workers: The bill introduces temporary deductions through 2028, including an above-the-line deduction of up to $12,500 for overtime pay for hourly workers, a deduction for tipped income, and a $10,000 deduction for interest on auto loans for U.S.-assembled vehicles, phasing out for higher earners.

• Economic and Political Impact: Analysis shows the bill reduces federal tax burdens across income levels, with middle-income households seeing significant relief, such as a 7.2% tax decrease for those earning $40,000 to $50,000, while Republicans leverage its passage as a political win to appeal to voters in battleground districts.

Trump’s $5 Trillion debt ceiling hike is a big headache for Democrats

President Donald Trump's push for a $5 trillion debt ceiling increase as part of his sweeping tax and spending bill could force Democrats to the negotiating table, leveraging Republican control of Congress to demand spending cuts and advance his fiscal agenda, analysts say.

• Debt Ceiling Leverage: President Trump's $5 trillion debt ceiling hike, embedded in his "big, beautiful bill," gives Republicans significant leverage to negotiate spending cuts with Democrats, as failure to raise the limit could lead to a U.S. government default and market instability.

• Bipartisan Dynamics: With Republicans controlling both chambers of Congress, the debt ceiling increase is seen as a tool for political brinkmanship, potentially forcing Democrats to agree to spending reductions in exchange for lifting the borrowing cap.

• Fiscal Criticism: Analysts like Romina Boccia from the Cato Institute criticize the $5 trillion debt ceiling increase as fiscally hypocritical, noting it pairs with modest, delayed spending cuts that risk being overturned, exacerbating the national debt.

Google’s self driving Waymo cars hit the streets of another American city

Waymo, Alphabet's self-driving car unit, began testing its autonomous vehicles in Philadelphia on Monday, marking the company's latest push to expand its robotaxi service into Northeastern cities.

• Waymo initiated testing of its autonomous vehicles deploying a limited fleet with human safety drivers to navigate complex areas like downtown and freeways, aiming to collect mapping data and assess performance through the fall.

• The testing follows Waymo’s recent announcement to manually drive vehicles in New York for similar purposes, as the company seeks to expand its Waymo One ride-hailing service, which currently operates in Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Austin.

• Alphabet’s “Other Bets” segment, including Waymo, generated $1.66 billion in revenue in 2024 but reported a $4.44 billion loss, highlighting ongoing challenges in monetizing autonomous driving technology as Waymo plans further expansion to Atlanta, Miami, and Washington, D.C. in 2026.

Hallelujah! After nearly 20 years, you can finally leave your shoes on at TSA

The Transportation Security Administration is phasing out its nearly two-decade-old requirement for passengers to remove shoes at select U.S. airport security checkpoints.

• The TSA is ending the mandatory shoe removal policy at certain U.S. airports, allowing passengers to keep footwear on during security screenings, with potential for nationwide expansion in a move aimed at streamlining screenings while maintaining safety..

• Implemented in 2006 after Richard Reid’s failed shoe bomb attempt, the policy has been criticized for causing delays; new scanning technology now enables threat detection without shoe removal.

• The change, not yet formally announced, aligns with TSA’s efforts to enhance passenger experience, though those triggering alarms may still need to remove shoes for additional screening.