Hello Capitalists,

Markets are slightly up today as Trump makes a deal with Vietnam that creates a strong economic opportunity for America.

• DOW: 44464.59 - (⬇️0.07)🔴

• S&P: 6217.66 - (⬆️0.32) ✅

• NASDAQ: 20271.24 - (⬆️0.83) ✅

• CBOE VIX Volatility Index: 16.69 (⬇️0.14) ⚠️⬇️

Here’s everything you need to be following today:

Trump scores Vietnam trade deal and it’s a big deal for American companies

President Donald Trump announced Wednesday that he struck a trade deal with Vietnam requiring the Southeast Asian nation to pay 20% tariffs on goods shipped to the U.S. in exchange for zero-tariff access to Vietnamese markets, replacing a previously suspended 46% tariff set to expire next week.

• Market Access Agreement: In exchange for the tariffs, Vietnam will provide "TOTAL ACCESS" to their markets for U.S. trade, allowing American products to be sold in Vietnam at "ZERO Tariff" - something Trump says Vietnam has "never done before." He specifically mentioned that SUVs and large engine vehicles could be successful additions to Vietnam's market.

• Personal Negotiations: Trump said he reached the deal through direct negotiations with To Lam, General Secretary of Vietnam's Communist Party, calling the experience "an absolute pleasure." Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh had previously expressed optimism about reaching a deal before the tariff suspension deadline.

• Trade Imbalance Context: The deal addresses a significant trade deficit, with U.S. goods trade with Vietnam totaling $149.6 billion in 2024, including $136.6 billion in imports versus only $13.1 billion in exports, creating a $123.5 billion trade deficit that increased 18.1% over 2023. Vietnam has been balancing relationships between the U.S. (its largest export market) and China (a major investor and neighbor).

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U.S. halts weapons shipments to Ukraine

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ordered a pause in sending missiles and ammunition to Ukraine due to concerns about depleted U.S. military stockpiles, following years of weapons shipments to Ukraine and nearly two years of Middle East operations supporting Israel and fighting Houthi rebels in Yemen.

• Significant Arsenal Affected: The delayed weapons include dozens of Patriot interceptors, thousands of 155mm artillery shells, more than 100 Hellfire missiles, over 250 precision-guided GMLRS systems, and dozens of Stinger and AIM missiles. The shipments could be held up until a stockpile assessment is complete, and potentially longer if munitions are needed elsewhere.

• Strategic Review Rationale: The White House said the decision was made to "put America's interests first" following a Defense Department review of global military support, while President Trump acknowledged at a NATO meeting that Patriot missiles are "very hard to get" and "we need them, too." Ukrainian officials called the decision "painful" amid ongoing Russian air strikes, highlighting the tension between supporting allies and maintaining U.S. military readiness.

Private employers cut jobs, signaling that Powell needs to cut rates

Private employers unexpectedly cut 33,000 jobs in June, marking the first month of private sector job losses since March 2023 and falling well short of the 98,000 job gains economists expected. This follows May's weak 29,000 job additions, signaling an intensifying slowdown in the U.S. labor market as companies show "hesitancy to hire" and "reluctance to replace departing workers."

• Labor Market in "Stasis": Despite job cuts, wages remained stable with 6.8% growth for job changers and 4.4% for job stayers, indicating the labor market still has "solid underpinnings" even as hiring momentum has slowed significantly. The economy is experiencing what economists call a labor market in "stasis" - workers aren't being laid off at concerning levels but also aren't voluntarily switching jobs at normal rates.

• Federal Reserve Implications: This data is crucial because it influences Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, with markets now pricing in at least two rate cuts for 2025 (up from one just a month prior) as investors watch for labor market cooling. The report comes before Thursday's official government jobs report, which is expected to show further hiring slowdown with just 110,000 nonfarm payroll additions and unemployment rising to 4.3%, potentially providing more ammunition for Fed rate cuts.

Why This Matters: This jobs data is a key economic indicator that directly affects Federal Reserve policy decisions on interest rates, which impact everything from mortgage rates to business borrowing costs. A cooling labor market could signal the Fed needs to cut rates to prevent economic slowdown, while also potentially indicating broader economic weakness ahead.

Waffle House just made it’s breakfasts cheaper after Biden-era surcharges are cancelled

Waffle House has eliminated its 50-cent per egg surcharge, the breakfast chain announced Tuesday, signaling relief for customers as egg prices stabilize.

• How it Started: Waffle House implemented its 50-cent per egg surcharge in February 2025, due to a nationwide shortage.

• Biden era price surge: The surcharge was introduced to address record-high egg prices, which peaked at $6.23 per dozen in March, but prices have since dropped to around $2.56, reflecting improved supply conditions.

• Future outlook: The U.S. Department of Agriculture and the American Egg Board note ongoing recovery efforts and a decrease in bird flu cases, though caution remains due to potential future supply shocks.

Department of Labor takes a chainsaw to DEI employment regulations

The Department of Labor, led by Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, unveiled a sweeping plan Tuesday to eliminate outdated and burdensome regulations, including measures targeting diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives, in a bid to boost economic growth and reduce red tape for American workers and businesses.

• The Department of Labor proposed 63 deregulatory actions to eliminate outdated regulations, building on 37 similar actions from the first Trump administration.

• The plan aligns with President Trump’s executive order to eliminate 10 regulations for every new one, targeting economic growth and job creation.

• Deputy Secretary Keith Sonderling emphasized that the initiative counters previous administrations’ focus on government expansion, aiming to deliver economic security by removing job-killing and inflation-driving red tape.